Sunday, April 12, 2015

Freedom from Choice

Laws

At least theoretically, scientific facts are supposed to be universal.  Therefore, the EPA cannot have a law of gravity that is different than the one used by the FDA.  On the other hand, regulatory policies enacted under different statutes may vary not only between agencies, but within the same agency.   For example, the National Park Service can have different speed limits in national parks than the Department of Transportation does on interstate freeways.  No one thinks that violates any laws of nature.

When an ought-to-is argument is used to create a lab-cloaked pseudoscientific fact, the public will expect it to be valid throughout the Federal Government.   That’s what the shell game is all about.  If you can confer the aura of science onto a social policy, then when other agencies with different regulatory statutes get in the way, you can call it political interference with the science.  Well, at least that’s what the true believers think.  But, unbelievers think otherwise.

The Reference Dose for Lead

The EPA doesn’t have one.   Many years ago, the agency (EPA, 2004) decided it wouldn’t be a good idea:

By comparison to most other environmental toxicants, the degree of uncertainty about the health effects of lead is quite low. It appears that some of these effects, particularly changes in the levels of certain blood enzymes and in aspects of children's neurobehavioral development, may occur at blood lead levels so low as to be essentially without a threshold. The Agency's RfD Work Group discussed inorganic lead (and lead compounds) at two meetings (07/08/1985 and 07/22/1985) and considered it inappropriate to develop an RfD for inorganic lead.

Although the lack of a threshold was the primary justification for not having an RfD, another possible motivation is that it allowed, and even demanded, that different program offices develop their own strategies for dealing with lead.  Specifically, the use of lead paint was banned, while levels for lead in both air and water were justified with a cost-benefit analysis.  The FDA also developed their own standard for limiting exposure to lead from food (Carrington, and Bolger, 1992).  

The Reference Dose for Methylmercury

Most reference doses are developed by the Office of Research and Development for use by multiple offices.  However, the Office of Pesticide Programs develops many RfDs their own with some minor procedural differences from ORD.  The reference dose for methylmercury is unusual.  First, even though the Office of Air also regulates atmospheric mercury that may be transformed in to methylmercury in the environment, it was developed by the EPA Office of Water for their own use.  Second, instead of being used to develop regulations, the RfD is primarily used to develop fish consumption advice for recreationally-caught fish.

In 1999, congress asked the National Academy of Sciences to evaluate the USEPA Reference Dose for methylmercury.  That wasn’t a good idea; if you ask a political question, you are bound to get a political answer.  So, arguably the main damage was done before the committee ever met.  But, the main body of the NRC report pretty much stuck to the science.  They calculated a benchmark dose, which does have a factual interpretation, and the then they applied a standard safety factor of 10 to get a Reference Dose, which doesn’t.  However, in the executive summary, the following statement appeared:

The committee estimates that over 60,000 children are born each year at risk for adverse neurodevelopmental effects due to in utero exposure to MeHg.

The FDA took interest in this statement and sent an inquiry to the chairman of the committee asking what, exactly, were the developmental effects that occur in 60,000 children each year?  This prompted the following response (Goyer, 2000):

The term “at risk” refers to children born each year from mothers with a level of methylmercury that is above the current RfD. (Note that the subcommittee concluded that the level of EPA’s RfD is scientifically justifiable.)  The offspring of those mothers are exposed to mercury levels that are not considered safe, and, therefore, the committee considered them to be “at risk”.  The calculation presents an estimate of the number of children at risk because of high exposure (maternal dose exceeding current RfD).  That number should not be interpreted as an estimate of the annual number of adverse neuro-developmental effects.  The committee does not believe it is possible to estimate a meaningful number of children that might be affected within the at risk population.  It should be noted that there is presently no established NOAEL (no observed adverse effect level of methyl mercury).  Therefore, there may be some increased risk above population background levels to developing infants below the 95 percentile.  These infants are not included in the 60,000.

That, my friends, is the shell game spoken from the bully pulpit of the National Academy of Science with all the sound and fury of protection, yet signifying nothing about what the risk really is.  Is-To-Ought-To-Is-To the FDA, where agency management fell for it hook, line, and sinker.  That the lawyers were so gullible is somewhat understandable.  They thought of the National Academy as the supreme court of Science.  Telling them that a) the RfD is not a statement of scientific fact, and b) there is no supreme court of science (Carrington, 2008) just didn’t register.  After all, congress asked for the RfD to be evaluated as a scientific fact, and therefore, that must be what it is.  You might think the FDA doctors would know better, but most doctors are not scientists either; at least that’s the only way I can explain it.

In any case, that’s when the war started.

References

Carrington CD and Bolger PM (1992).  An assessment of the hazards of lead in food.  Regul Pharmacol Toxicol 16:265-272.

Carrington PD (2008).  Freedom to Err: The Idea of Natural Selection in Politics, Schools, and Courts.  William & Mary Bill of Rights Journal 17:1-42.

Goyer, RA.  Chair, Committee on the Toxicological Effects of Mercury. (2000, December 1).  Letter to Joseph A. Levitt.

National Research Council (2000).  Toxicological Effects of Methylmercury.  National Academy Press, Washington, DC. 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2004).  Lead and compounds (inorganic) (CASRN 7439-92-1).  http://www.epa.gov/iris/subst/0277.htm

Official Post Soundtrack

Devo (1980).  Freedom of Choice.   In: Freedom of Choice, Track 6.


Post Note

Thesis Post #30.  If that's not shell gaming, what is?

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