I haven't updated this since last June or so - that's partly because I've only added a dozen essays since then. But, since I'm on a binge this month (Feb 2016), I guess it is time to get the newer ones into order:
Sequence 1: science without the big S
Thesis Title
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Main Concepts
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Related Theses
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1. God is just a theory; so is evolution
2. Deductive vs inductive reasoning
3. Two Probabilities
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Antithesis:
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1. There is no established scientific method
2. What passes for
scientific truth
3. Formal characterization of probability
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Linked:
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1. Mathematical Probability
2. Frequency Theory
3. One word, four important meanings
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In Sequence:
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1. Empirical and Formal Objectivity
2. Objective and Subjective Probability
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1. Formal Weight of the Evidence (WoE)
2. Evidential Grading
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In Sequence:
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1. Probability Tree Nuts and Bolts
2. Alterative Theories; Keeping score
3. Tree Programming
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Linked:
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1. EPA Cancer WoE schemes
2. Noncancer WoE
3. Quantifying WoE
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Antithesis: The Certainty
of Nothing
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Sequence 2: Regulatory Toxicology
Thesis Title
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Main Concepts
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Related Theses
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1. Pharmacology to Toxicology
2. Environmental Toxicology
3. Funding Sources
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Antithesis: An Ethical
Science
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1. Life before Premarket Approval
2. Pesticides: Premarket
Approval
3. Food Additives Too: The Scientist Decides
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In
Sequence: The Safety Assessment Paradigm
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1. Old Additives
2 History of Use
3. A “Flexible” Safety Standard
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1. Limited Human Control
2. Limited Regulatory Authority
3. Limited Scientific Influence
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In Sequence: The Risk
Assessment Paradigm
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1. Nutritional Supplements
2. Drugs
3. Placebos
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1. Legal Standards of
Proof
2. Food Law Standards
3. Quantitative
Interpretations
4. Judges and Peers
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Linked: NOAELs and BMDs
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Sequence 3: The Safety Assessment Paradigm
Thesis Title
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Main Concepts
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Related Theses
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1. A Process for Premarket Approval
2. Other Uses
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Linked: Dietary Exposure Assessment
In Sequence: Protection
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1. The NOAEL and the ONAEL
2. Dose-Response Modeling to a Point
3. Reversing the Burden of Proof
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Linked: Target
Theory
Linked: Population Dose-Response Models
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1. Safe Enough
2. Known Differences
3. Adjustment Distributions
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Linked: Computer
Simulations
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1. Thresholds
2. Stochasticity
3. Technocracy
4. Rationality
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Linked: The
Risk Assessment Paradigm
Linked: The
Certainty of Nothing
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1. A Precautionary Tradition
2. A Safe Level for Water
3. Reconsidering
4. Running the Marathon
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Sequence 4: The Risk Assessment Paradigm
Thesis Title
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Main Concepts
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Related Theses
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1. Worst Case Quantification
2. Meaningless Risk Statements
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Linked: Quantifiers
Linked: Dichotomies
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1. Is and Ought
2. A Process for an Informed Democracy
3. Where Does It Start?
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In Sequence: Target Theory
Antithesis:Protection
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1. Dose Calculation
2. Food Consumption Surveys
3. Acute vs Chronic Exposure
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Linked:
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1. Mathematical Approximations
2. Monte-Carlo Simulation
3. Variability and Uncertainty
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Antithesis: The Certainty
of Nothing
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1. Who Decides?
2. The Toggle Switch
3. Interventions
4. Optimization
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Antithesis: Freedom
from Choice
Antithesis: An Inaction Level
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1. Iteration
2. Being a Scientist Who Cares
3. The Political Narrative
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1. Risk Analysis
2. The Third Wheel
3. Risk Paralysis
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Sequence 5: Dose-Response Modeling
Thesis Title
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Main Concepts
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Related Theses
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1. Scientists vs. Engineers
2. Inductive Reasoning vs Mathematical
Probability
3. Schrödinger’s Cats
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Linked: Statistical
Insignificance
Linked: Dichotomies
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1. Biochemical Pharmacology
2. Biological Complexity
3. Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics
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Linked: Toxicology
Meets Epidemiology
Linked: NOAELs and BMDs
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1. Radiation Theory
2. Probit Analysis
3. Descriptive Statistics
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Linked: The Safety Assessment Paradigm
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1. Converting Population Frequency to Average
Life Expectancy
2. One-in-a-Million vs Time
3. Your Mileage May Vary
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Antithesis: The
Certainty of Nothing
In Sequence: Risk Management
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1. The “Low Dose” Problem
2. What Happens Between High and Low Dose?
3. In Theory, There Are No Thresholds
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1. Defining the “Right” Answer
2. The Other Probability
3. Examining Assumptions
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Linked: Tree Fertilizer
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Sequence 6: Epidemiology More or Less
Thesis Title
|
Main Concepts
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Related Theses
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1.
The Invention of Significance Testing: Fisher
vs. Neyman-Pearson
2.
Why Fisher was the Editor’s choice
3.
Statistical Significance is no substitute for
Practical Significance
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1.
The Recorded Observation
2.
The Importance of Sharing
3.
Adjusted Data are not Observations
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Linked: The Scandal of Philosophy
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1.
Relative Risk and Absolute Risk
2.
A Relative Measure for Continuous Endpoints
3.
Statistical Significance, Not So Good
4.
For Associational Strength, Observed RR is
What Counts
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Linked: Population Models
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1.
The Log(dose) Transform
2.
It’s Causality Stupid
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Linked: Target Theory
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1. An Epistemological Science
2. Expanding Peer Review 3. Those Who Fail to Record History Are Doomed to Repeat It |
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Biologically Plausible Gradients
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Sequence 7: The Science-Policy Shell Game
Thesis Title
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Main Concepts
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Related Theses
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1. Shell Game Nuts and Bolts
2. Ought to Is: The ADI becomes the RfD
3. The Protection Racket
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Solution: Refomation
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1. The Default Option
2. Shell Gaming Scientific Theory
3. The Point of Desolation
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Linked: Dichotomies
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1. Is
≠ Ought
2. Around
the Precautionary Bend
3. Academic
Scientists Have Vested Interests Too
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Linked: You Just Don’t Care
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1. Scientific
Laws vs the Other Kind
2. No
RfD for Lead
3. Enforced Precaution for
Methylmercury
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Linked: The Org Chart Problem
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1. The
Turf Battle
2. The
Paradigm Battle
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1. Giving
Advice
2. The Shell
Game Starts to Wear Thin
3. Providing Consumer
Information
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Sequence 8: Public Health Risk Management
Thesis Title
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Main Concepts
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Related Theses
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1. Squeaky Wheels
2. Useful Levels
3. Useless Levels
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Linked: Chemical Contaminants in Food
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1. Risk Assessment Is Alive
2. An Economic Analysis
3. Optimal Levels
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Linked: Risk Management
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1. Dr. Oz Squeaks
2. A Risk Assessment
3. The Right Handed Shell Game
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1. An Intervention Analysis
2. An Action Level, But Why?
3. Source Elimination?
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Sequence 9: Solutions
Thesis Title
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Main Concepts
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Related Theses
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1. Testing Guidelines
2. Science-Policy
3. Dehyphenation
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1 Deharmonization
2. Repackaging
3. Refocusing
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Linked: Protection
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1. Less is More
2. Uncertainty Analysis
3. Problem Solving
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Linked: The Certainty of Nothing
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1. Plausible Gradients
2. Building Weight of the Evidence 3. Human Toxicology |
Sequence 10: Personal Risk Assessment
Thesis Title
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Main Concepts
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Related Theses
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1. Public vs Individiual Health
2. Consumption Advice; Who Decides?
3. A Personal Risk Assessment Paradigm
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Linked: The Risk Assessment Paradigm
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1. Bad News Doesn't Sell Food
2. But It Sells Other Things
3. Uncertainty and Science Do Mix
4. The Perils of Public
Relations
|
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1. So Many Neurons
2. Disrupting the Brain
3. So Many Toxic Molecules
4. Some Wear and Tear is Normal
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1. A Rapidly Changing Fish Market
2. A Fish Table
3. Calculate Your Methylmercury
Intake
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1. Biomarkers
2. Correcting for Body Weight
3. Good Blood and Bad Hair Data
4. Calculate You Blood and Hair Levels
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